Aggregating Phillips curves

Arbeitspapier

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve is at the center of two raging empirical debates. First, how can purely forward looking pricing account for the observed persistence in aggregate inflation. Second, price-setting responds to movements in marginal costs, which should therefore be the driving force to observed inflation dynamics. This is not always the case in typical estimations. In this paper, we show how heterogeneity in pricing behavior is relevant to both questions. We detail the conditions under which imposing homogeneity results in overestimating a backward-looking component in (aggregate) inflation, and underestimating the importance of (aggregate) marginal costs for (aggregate) inflation. We provide intuition for the direction of these biases, and verify them in French data with information on prices and marginal costs at the industry level. We show that the apparent discrepancy in the estimated duration of nominal rigidities, as implied from aggregate or microeconomic data, can be fully attributable to a heterogeneity bias.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 785

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Monetary Policy
• Subject: heterogeneity ; Inflation persistence ; marginal costs ; New Keynesian Phillips curve ; Inflation ; Preismanagement ; Grenzkostenpreis ; New-Keynesian Phillips Curve ; Ökonometrisches Modell ; Frankreich

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Imbs, Jean ; Jondeau, Eric ; Pelgrin, Florian
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): European Central Bank (ECB)
• (where): Frankfurt a. M.
• (when): 2007

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/153219
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET