Arbeitspapier
Score-Driven Systemic Risk Signaling for European Sovereign Bond Yields and CDS Spreads
We compute joint sovereign default probabilities as coincident systemic risk indicators. Instead of commonly used CDS spreads, we use government bond yield data which provide a longer data history. We show that for the more recent sample period 2008--2015, joint default probabilities based on CDS and bond yield data yield similar results. For the period 1987-2008, only the bond yield data can be used to shed light on European sovereign systemic stress. We also show that simple averages of rolling pairwise correlations do not always yield intuitive systemic risk indicators.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. 16-064/IV
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Financial Crises
Financial Forecasting and Simulation
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- Subject
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systemic risk
conditional default
credit default swaps
bond yields
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Lange, Rutger-Jan
Lucas, Andre
Siegmann, Arjen H.
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Tinbergen Institute
- (where)
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Amsterdam and Rotterdam
- (when)
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2016
- Handle
- Last update
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10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET
Data provider
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ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Lange, Rutger-Jan
- Lucas, Andre
- Siegmann, Arjen H.
- Tinbergen Institute
Time of origin
- 2016
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