Detecting financial contagion in a multivariate system

Konferenzbeitrag

This paper proposes an original three-part sequential testing procedure (STP), with which to test for contagion using a multivariate model. First, it identifies structural breaks in the volatility of a given set of countries. Then a structural break test is applied to the correlation matrix to identify and date the potential contagion mechanism. As a third element, the STP tests for the distinctiveness of the break dates previously found. Compared to traditional contagion tests in a bivariate set-up, the STP has high testing power and is able to locate the dates of contagion more precisely. Monte Carlo simulations underline the importance of separating variance and correlation break testing, the endogenous dating of the breakpoints and the usage of multi-dimensional data. The procedure is applied for the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, revealing the chronological order of the crisis events.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2014: Evidenzbasierte Wirtschaftspolitik - Session: Macroeconometrics ; No. B13-V3

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models ; Financial Crises ; International Financial Markets

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Manner, Hans ; Blatt, Dominik ; Candelon, Bertrand
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
• (where): Kiel und Hamburg
• (when): 2014

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/100411
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET