Arbeitspapier
The asymmetric effects of weather shocks on euro area inflation
This paper assesses the impact of weather shocks on inflation components in the four largest euro area economies. We combine high-frequency weather data with monthly data on inflation and output growth within a set of Bayesian Vector Autoregressions which explicitly considers the seasonal dependence of the shock. Results suggest the presence of significant country asymmetries and seasonal responses of inflation to temperature shocks, mainly via food, energy, and service prices. An increase in monthly mean temperatures has inflationary effects in summer and autumn, with a stronger response in warmer euro area countries. An increase in temperature variability has significant upward impacts on inflation rates over and above the impacts of changes in means.
- ISBN
-
978-92-899-5994-0
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 2798
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- Thema
-
Temperature shocks
Climate change
Inflation
Vector Autoregression
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Ciccarelli, Matteo
Kuik, Friderike
Martínez Hernández, Catalina
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
European Central Bank (ECB)
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2023
- DOI
-
doi:10.2866/604002
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Ciccarelli, Matteo
- Kuik, Friderike
- Martínez Hernández, Catalina
- European Central Bank (ECB)
Entstanden
- 2023
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