Arbeitspapier
The Greek debt crisis: Likely causes, mechanics and outcomes
We use insights from the literature on currency crises to offer an analytical treatment of the crisis in the market for Greek government bonds. We argue that the crisis itself and its escalating nature are very likely to be the result of: (a) steady deterioration of Greek macroeconomic fundamentals over 2001-2009 to levels inconsistent with longterm EMU participation; and (b) a double shift in markets’ expectations, from a regime of credible commitment to future EMU participation under an implicit EMU/German guarantee of Greek fiscal liabilities, to a regime of non-credible EMU commitment without fiscal guarantees, respectively occurring in November 2009 and February/March 2010. We argue that the risk of contagion to other periphery EMU countries is significant; and that without extensive structural reforms the sustainability of the EMU is in question.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: Cardiff Economics Working Papers ; No. E2010/3
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Foreign Exchange
International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
International Lending and Debt Problems
Open Economy Macroeconomics
International Policy Coordination and Transmission
International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy: General
- Subject
-
currency crises
bonds market
expectations
fiscal guarantees
contagion
Öffentliche Schulden
Insolvenz
Kreditabkommen
Wirtschaftskrise
Griechenland
Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Arghyrou, Michael G.
Tsoukalas, John D.
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School
- (where)
-
Cardiff
- (when)
-
2010
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Arghyrou, Michael G.
- Tsoukalas, John D.
- Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School
Time of origin
- 2010
Other Objects (12)
The Greek debt crisis: Likely causes, mechanics and outcomes
Greek Debt Crisis: The "@-euro" a New Possible Solution to Greek Debt Crisis
The Deal on Greek Debt
The Greek public debt problem
The Greek Debt Restructuring: An Autopsy
The Greek debt trap: An escape plan
A likely idea
A likely story
Not very likely
So very likely
The Greek tragedy : Narratives and imagined futures in the Greek sovereign debt crisis
The Greek tragedy : narratives and imagined futures in the Greek sovereign debt crisis
The Greek debt crisis: Likely causes, mechanics and outcomes
Greek Debt Crisis: The "@-euro" a New Possible Solution to Greek Debt Crisis
The Deal on Greek Debt
The Greek public debt problem
The Greek Debt Restructuring: An Autopsy
The Greek debt trap: An escape plan
A likely idea
A likely story
Not very likely
So very likely
The Greek tragedy : Narratives and imagined futures in the Greek sovereign debt crisis
The Greek tragedy : narratives and imagined futures in the Greek sovereign debt crisis
The Greek debt crisis: Likely causes, mechanics and outcomes
Greek Debt Crisis: The "@-euro" a New Possible Solution to Greek Debt Crisis
The Deal on Greek Debt
The Greek public debt problem
The Greek Debt Restructuring: An Autopsy
The Greek debt trap: An escape plan
A likely idea
A likely story
Not very likely
So very likely
The Greek tragedy : Narratives and imagined futures in the Greek sovereign debt crisis