Meta-Induction and the Wisdom of Crowds

Abstract: Meta-induction, in its various forms, is an imitative prediction method, where the prediction methods and the predictions of other agents are imitated to the extent that those methods or agents have proven successful in the past. In past work, Schurz demonstrated the optimality of meta-induction as a method for predicting unknown events and quantities. However, much recent discussion, along with formal and empirical work, on the Wisdom of Crowds has extolled the virtue of diverse and independent judgment as essential to maintenance of 'wise crowds'. This suggests that meta-inductive prediction methods could undermine the wisdom of the crowd inasmuch these methods recommend that agents imitate the predictions of other agents. In this article, we evaluate meta-inductive methods with a focus on the impact on a group's performance that may result from including meta-inductivists among its members. In addition to considering cases of global accessibility (i.e., cases where the judgments of all members of the group are available to all of the group's members), we consider cases where agents only have access to the judgments of other agents within their own local neighborhoods.

Standort
Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
Umfang
Online-Ressource
Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Meta-Induction and the Wisdom of Crowds ; volume:34 ; number:2 ; year:2012 ; pages:339-366 ; extent:28
Analyse & Kritik ; 34, Heft 2 (2012), 339-366 (gesamt 28)

Urheber
Thorn, Paul D.
Schurz, Gerhard

DOI
10.1515/auk-2012-0212
URN
urn:nbn:de:101:1-2404171638567.127342430764
Rechteinformation
Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
Letzte Aktualisierung
14.08.2025, 10:44 MESZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
Deutsche Nationalbibliothek. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Beteiligte

  • Thorn, Paul D.
  • Schurz, Gerhard

Ähnliche Objekte (12)