Arbeitspapier

On the suitability of alternative competitiveness indicators for explaining real exports of advanced economies

Real exports are commonly specified as depending on an indicator of price competitiveness and on a measure of foreign activity. This study empirically investigates the suitability of alternative competitiveness indicators in explaining real exports for a broad group of advanced economies. To this end, a panel cointegration analysis is conducted, augmented by a forecasting exercise. In the latter, repeated sampling techniques are used in order to avoid arbitrary sample splits. We find that broad price- and cost-based indicators are to be preferred to narrow price based measures such as CPI- or PPI-deflated real exchange rates. Furthermore, the evidence points towards using world trade as the external activity variable instead of GDP- or real imports-based measures.

ISBN
978-3-95729-300-8
Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Bundesbank Discussion Paper ; No. 36/2016

Classification
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
Empirical Studies of Trade
Foreign Exchange
Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Subject
international price competitiveness
real export demand
price elasticity of exports

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Fischer, Christoph
Hossfeld, Oliver
Radeck, Karin
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Deutsche Bundesbank
(where)
Frankfurt a. M.
(when)
2016

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Fischer, Christoph
  • Hossfeld, Oliver
  • Radeck, Karin
  • Deutsche Bundesbank

Time of origin

  • 2016

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