Arbeitspapier

Should transportation output be included as part of the coincident indicators system?

With the increasing importance of the service-providing sectors, information from these sectors has become essential to the understanding of contemporary business cycles. This paper explores the usefulness of the transportation services output index (TSI) as an additional coincident indicator in determining the peaks and troughs of U.S. economy. The index represents a service sector that plays a central role in facilitating economic activities between sectors and across regions, and can be useful in monitoring the current state of the economy. We evaluate the marginal contribution of the TSI in identifying cyclical turning points in the context of four currently used NBER indicators. The TSI is found to have advantages over the composite index of coincident indicators in identifying turning points, and has been of critical importance in recent recessions.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 3477

Classification
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
Subject
transportation services index (TSI)
business cycles
coincident indicators
Spedition
Logistikunternehmen
Konjunkturindikator
Konjunkturprognose
Prognoseverfahren
USA

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Lahiri, Kajal
Yao, Wenxiong
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
(where)
Munich
(when)
2011

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Lahiri, Kajal
  • Yao, Wenxiong
  • Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)

Time of origin

  • 2011

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