Artikel

Short-term monitoring of the Spanish government balance

We construct multivariate, state-space mixed-frequencies models for the main components of the Spanish General Government sector made up of blocks for each one of its subsectors: Central Government, Social Security and aggregate of Regional and Local government sectors. Each block is modelled through its total revenue and expenditure categories, and encompasses a number of indicators, depending on data availability. The mixed-frequencies approach is particularly relevant for the case of Spain, given its institutional set-up and the specific data availability for the different subsectors. All in all, we provide models detailed enough in coverage, while at the same time manageable, to be used: (1) for real-time monitoring of fiscal policies with a focus on quarterly developments of the General Government sector, (2) for the monitoring of general government sub-sectors for which intra-annual data coverage is limited (Regional and Local governments), (3) to bridge (translate) into National Accounts availablemonthly information for the subsectors of the general government.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Journal: SERIEs - Journal of the Spanish Economic Association ; ISSN: 1869-4195 ; Volume: 2 ; Year: 2011 ; Issue: 1 ; Pages: 97-119 ; Heidelberg: Springer

Classification
Wirtschaft
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Subject
fiscal forecasting
fiscal policies
mixed frequency data
Kalman filter
Öffentlicher Sektor
Zustandsraummodell
Prognose
Spanien

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Leal, Teresa
Pedregal, Diego J.
Pérez, Javier J.
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Springer
(where)
Heidelberg
(when)
2011

DOI
doi:10.1007/s13209-010-0018-3
Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Artikel

Associated

  • Leal, Teresa
  • Pedregal, Diego J.
  • Pérez, Javier J.
  • Springer

Time of origin

  • 2011

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