Arbeitspapier
Progress form forecast failure: The Norwegian consumption function
After a forecast failure, a respecification is usually necessary to account for the data ex post, in which case there is a gain in knowledge as a result of the forecast failure. Using Norwegian consumption as an example, we show that the financial deregulation in the mid 1980s led to forecast failure both for consumption functions and Euler equations. This constellation of forecast failures is shown to be inconsistent with an underlying Euler equation, a result that also explains why progress took the form of a respecified consumption function where wealth plays a central role. That model is updated and is shown to have constant parameters despite huge changes in the income to wealth ratio over nine years of new data.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Memorandum ; No. 2000,32
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Model Construction and Estimation
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth
Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Thema
-
Consumption functions
equilibrium correction models
Euler equations, financial deregulation
forecast failure
progressive research strategies
VAR models
Gesamtwirtschaftliche Konsumfunktion
Norwegen
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Eitrheim, Øyvind
Jansen, Eilev S.
Nymoen, Ragnar
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
University of Oslo, Department of Economics
- (wo)
-
Oslo
- (wann)
-
2000
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Eitrheim, Øyvind
- Jansen, Eilev S.
- Nymoen, Ragnar
- University of Oslo, Department of Economics
Entstanden
- 2000
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