Assessing alternative indicators for Covid-19 policy evaluation, with a counterfactual for Sweden

Arbeitspapier

We compare different indicators of the spread and consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, developing a novel method to adjust daily COVID-19 deaths to match weekly excess mortality. Focusing on Sweden, the only country that has good data and did not impose a lockdown, we construct counterfactuals for what would have happened if it had imposed a lockdown, using a synthetic control method. Correcting for data problems and optimizing the synthetic control for each indicator considered, we find stronger effects than previously estimated. Most importantly, studying the ratio of positives to the number of tests, we find that a lockdown would have had sizable effects already after a week. The 3-4 weeks delay highlighted in previous studies appears mainly driven by the large changes in testing frequency that occurred in Sweden during the period considered.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: SITE Working Paper ; No. 55

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
• Thema: COVID-19 indicators ; excess deaths ; COVID-19 deaths ; containment policies ; lockdown ; synthetic control method ; Sweden

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Latour, Chiara ; Peracchi, Franco ; Spagnolo, Giancarlo
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE)
• (wo): Stockholm
• (wann): 2021

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/249250
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ