Do leading indicators help to predict business cycle turning points in Germany?

Arbeitspapier

Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching models were taken into consideration. The overall results indicate that the interest rate spread, the long-term interest rate as well as some monetary indicators and some survey indicators can help predicting turning points of the business cycle.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: DIW Discussion Papers ; No. 314

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
• Thema: Business cycle ; leading indicators ; probit model ; McFadden's R2 ; Markov switching models ; Konjunkturindikator ; Konjunkturprognose ; Prognoseverfahren ; Schätzung ; Deutschland

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Fritsche, Ulrich ; Kouzine, Vladimir
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
• (wo): Berlin
• (wann): 2002

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18050
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ