A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany

Abstract 2. From all the realizations of this simulation experiment, the maximum peak discharge was identified for each catchment. 3  s- 1 3  s- 1 3  s- 1. For all analysed subbasins in Germany, we found that, on average, the highest counterfactual peak exceeded the maximum original peak (between 2001 and 2022) by a factor of 5.3. For 98 % of the basins, the factor was higher than 2. We discuss various limitations of our analysis, which are important to be aware of, namely, the quantification and selection of candidate rainfall events, the hydrological model, and the design of the counterfactual search experiment. Still, we think that these results might help to expand the view of what could happen in the case that certain extreme events occurred elsewhere and thereby reduce the element of surprise in disaster risk management.

Object Details

• Location: Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
• Extent: Online-Ressource
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany ; volume:24 ; number:6 ; year:2024 ; pages:2147-2164 ; extent:18 ; Natural hazards and earth system sciences ; 24, Heft 6 (2024), 2147-2164 (gesamt 18)

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Soziale Probleme, Sozialdienste, Versicherungen

Contributors, Places and Time

• Creator: Voit, Paul ; Heistermann, Maik

Further information

• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-2408061103098.447534106557
• Rights: Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
• Last update: 14.08.2025, 11:00 AM CEST