Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China

Arbeitspapier

Inflation in emerging markets is often driven by large, persistent changes in food and energy prices. Core inflation measures that neglect or under-weight volatile CPI subcomponents such as food and energy risk excluding information helpful in assessing current and future inflation trends. This paper develops an underlying inflation gauge (UIG) for China, extracting the persistent part of the common component in a broad dataset of price and non-price variables. Our proposed UIG for China avoids the excess volatility reduction that plagues traditional Chinese core inflation measures. When forecasting headline CPI, the proposed UIG outperforms traditional core inflation measures over a variety of samples.

Angaben zum Objekt

• ISBN: 978-952-323-226-6
• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: BOFIT Discussion Papers ; No. 11/2018

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Estimation: General ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; International Financial Markets ; Index Numbers and Aggregation; Leading indicators

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Amstad, Marlene ; Ye, Huan ; Ma, Guonan
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
• (wo): Helsinki
• (wann): 2018

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/212896
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ