How many jobs? A leading indicator model of New Zealand employment

Arbeitspapier

This paper constructs a composite index of leading indicators of New Zealand employment. The choice of variables and their weights in the composite index are determined by their concordance with employment. The composite index is included in an indicator model to forecast quarterly employment growth. The indicator model explains about 67 percent of the quarterly variation in employment, in sample, and correctly predicted the direction of next period employment almost 80 percent of the time, out of sample.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: New Zealand Treasury Working Paper ; No. 02/13

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• Subject: Composite index of leading indicators ; forecasting ; employment

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Claus, Edda ; Claus, Iris
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): New Zealand Government, The Treasury
• (where): Wellington
• (when): 2002

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/205488
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET