Structural Models for Policy-Making: Coping with Parametric Uncertainty

Arbeitspapier

The ex-ante evaluation of policies using structural econometric models is based on estimated parameters as a stand-in for the truth. This practice ignores uncertainty in the counterfactual policy predictions of the model. We develop a generic approach that deals with parametric uncertainty using uncertainty sets and frames model-informed policymaking as a decision problem under uncertainty. The seminal human capital investment model by Keane and Wolpin (1997) provides us with a well-known, influential, and empirically-grounded test case. We document considerable uncertainty in their policy predictions and highlight the resulting policy recommendations from using different formal rules on decision-making under uncertainty.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: IZA Discussion Papers ; No. 14317

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory ; Quantitative Policy Modeling ; Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
• Thema: uncertainty quantification ; structural estimation ; statistical decision rules

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Eisenhauer, Philipp ; Gabler, Janos ; Janys, Lena
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
• (wo): Bonn
• (wann): 2021

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/236348
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ