Arbeitspapier
A comparison of different wind power forecasting models to the Mycielski approach
In the wind power industry, wind speed forecasts are obtained and transformed into wind power forecasts. The Mycielski algorithm has proven to be an accurate predictor for wind speed in short-term scenarios. Moreover, Mycielski has the capability of forecasting wind power directly, instead of wind speed. This article compares wind power forecasts calculated by the Mycielski algorithm to state-of-the-art forecasters. As such, we use the Wind Power Prediction Tool (WPPT) and the recently developed generalization of it, GWPPT (Generalized WPPT). Furthermore, we evaluate statistical time series models such as autoregressive and vector autoregressive models. As an additional benchmark we use the persistence model, which is often used to assess forecasting accuracy. Each model is evaluated and we give a recommendation for the best forecasting model.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: Discussion Paper ; No. 355
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Energy Forecasting
- Subject
-
Mycielski algorithm
WPPT
GWPPT
Wind Power
Wind Energy
Forecasting
Prediction
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Croonenbroeck, Carsten
Ambach, Daniel
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
European University Viadrina, Department of Business Administration and Economics
- (where)
-
Frankfurt (Oder)
- (when)
-
2014
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Croonenbroeck, Carsten
- Ambach, Daniel
- European University Viadrina, Department of Business Administration and Economics
Time of origin
- 2014
Other Objects (12)
Forecasting volatility of wind power production
Forecasting volatility of wind power production
Forecasting inflation in Argentina: A comparison of different models
Development of an offshore specific wind power forecasting system
A Comparison of Different Short-Term Macroeconomic Forecasting Models: Evidence from Armenia
Minute-scale forecasting of wind power using long-range lidar data
Accurate medium-term wind power forecasting in a censored classification framework
Comparison of transfer path characteristics for different wind turbine drivetrain variations
Modeling and forecasting wholesale electricity prices under consideration of wind and solar power
Forecasting Macedonian Inflation: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting
Forecasting Macedonian GDP: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting
"WIND POWER"
Forecasting volatility of wind power production
Forecasting volatility of wind power production
Forecasting inflation in Argentina: A comparison of different models
Development of an offshore specific wind power forecasting system
A Comparison of Different Short-Term Macroeconomic Forecasting Models: Evidence from Armenia
Minute-scale forecasting of wind power using long-range lidar data
Accurate medium-term wind power forecasting in a censored classification framework
Comparison of transfer path characteristics for different wind turbine drivetrain variations
Modeling and forecasting wholesale electricity prices under consideration of wind and solar power
Forecasting Macedonian Inflation: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting
Forecasting Macedonian GDP: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting
"WIND POWER"
Forecasting volatility of wind power production
Forecasting volatility of wind power production
Forecasting inflation in Argentina: A comparison of different models
Development of an offshore specific wind power forecasting system
A Comparison of Different Short-Term Macroeconomic Forecasting Models: Evidence from Armenia
Minute-scale forecasting of wind power using long-range lidar data
Accurate medium-term wind power forecasting in a censored classification framework
Comparison of transfer path characteristics for different wind turbine drivetrain variations
Modeling and forecasting wholesale electricity prices under consideration of wind and solar power
Forecasting Macedonian Inflation: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting
Forecasting Macedonian GDP: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting