Arbeitspapier
Non-Additivity of Subjective Expectations over Different Time Intervals
We examine the additivity of stock-market expectations over different time intervals. When asked about a ten-year interval, survey respondents expect a stock-price change that is not equal to, but closer to zero than, the sum of their expectations over two shorter time intervals that cover the same ten years. Such sub-additivity is irrational in that it cannot stem from aggregating short-term expectations. Model estimates show that the pattern is consistent with a time perception where shorter time intervals have a proportionally larger weight. We also find that the respondents' degree of additivity is correlated with making larger financial investments.
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Series: Discussion Paper ; No. 337
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
Household Saving; Personal Finance
Expectations; Speculations
- Thema
-
expectation formation
time perception
sub-additivity
super-additivity
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Haan, Peter
Sun, Chen
Sunde, Uwe
Weizsäcker, Georg
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
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Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München und Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190 - Rationality and Competition
- (wo)
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München und Berlin
- (wann)
-
2022
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Haan, Peter
- Sun, Chen
- Sunde, Uwe
- Weizsäcker, Georg
- Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München und Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190 - Rationality and Competition
Entstanden
- 2022
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