Arbeitspapier

Non-Additivity of Subjective Expectations over Different Time Intervals

We examine the additivity of stock-market expectations over different time intervals. When asked about a ten-year interval, survey respondents expect a stock-price change that is not equal to, but closer to zero than, the sum of their expectations over two shorter time intervals that cover the same ten years. Such sub-additivity is irrational in that it cannot stem from aggregating short-term expectations. Model estimates show that the pattern is consistent with a time perception where shorter time intervals have a proportionally larger weight. We also find that the respondents' degree of additivity is correlated with making larger financial investments.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Discussion Paper ; No. 337

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
Household Saving; Personal Finance
Expectations; Speculations
Thema
expectation formation
time perception
sub-additivity
super-additivity

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Haan, Peter
Sun, Chen
Sunde, Uwe
Weizsäcker, Georg
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München und Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190 - Rationality and Competition
(wo)
München und Berlin
(wann)
2022

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Haan, Peter
  • Sun, Chen
  • Sunde, Uwe
  • Weizsäcker, Georg
  • Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München und Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190 - Rationality and Competition

Entstanden

  • 2022

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