Inflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany

Arbeitspapier

A regime shift towards increased inflation expectations is credited with jumpstarting the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States. Germany experienced a recovery as fast and strong in the 1930s. What role did inflation expectations play at the start of this remarkable economic upturn? To answer this question, we study inflation expectations in Germany across two different methods: we conduct a narrative study of media sources and estimate inflation expectations from a FAVAR model. Consistently across these approaches, we do not find a shift to increased expected inflation. This recovery was different, and its causes lie elsewhere.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour" ; No. 6

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; General Aggregative Models: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian ; Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: Europe: 1913- ; Expectations; Speculations
• Thema: Inflation Expectations ; Great Depression ; Inflation Forecasting ; Regime Change ; Germany ; Narrative Evidence

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Daniel, Volker ; ter Steege, Lucas
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Humboldt University Berlin
• (wo): Berlin
• (wann): 2018

Weitere Informationen

• DOI: doi:10.18452/19198
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/223187
• URN: urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/19949-3
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:46 MEZ