Konferenzbeitrag
A real-time analysis on the importance of hard and soft data for nowcasting German GDP
In this paper we reexamine the relative role of soft and hard data in terms of short-term GDP forecasting. We employ mixed frequency models (MF-VARS) and real-time data to investigate the relative role of survey data relative to industrial production and orders in Germany. Special emphasis is given to the real-time data flow of surveys, production and orders. Although we find evidence that the forecast characteristics based on real-time and final data releases differ, we see only little impact on the relative forecasting performance of indicator models. However, when it comes to optimally combine soft and hard data, the use of final release data may understate the relative role of survey information.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2016: Demographischer Wandel - Session: Forecasting and Information Transmission ; No. B01-V3
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Heinisch, Katja
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
- (wo)
-
Kiel und Hamburg
- (wann)
-
2016
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Konferenzbeitrag
Beteiligte
- Heinisch, Katja
- ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Entstanden
- 2016
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