Arbeitspapier
Fiscal rules and public investment: The case of Peru, 2000-2019
This article has three goals. First, it describes the genesis of fiscal rules in Peru and its degree of compliance. Second, it estimates the effect of fiscal rules adoption on public investment. Last, it analyzes the impact of alternative fiscal rules on public investment and public debt sustainability. Our main results are as follows. First, the implementation of fiscal rules in the year 2000 caused a 60 to 80 percent fall in public investment relative to several counterfactuals. Second, our DSGE model suggests a Structural Fiscal Rule would have increased the consumers welfare in the period 2000-2019 more than other fiscal designs. This rule reduces the procyclicality of public investment under commodity price shocks and macroeconomic volatility under world interest rate shocks. Third, a Structural Fiscal Rule has the lowest probability of exceeding the current public debt limit (30 percent of GDP), although there is a trade-off between investment-friendly rules and fiscal sustainability issues. Nevertheless, our quantitative results are limited to short spans of analysis. With a long-run perspective, we may say that fiscal rulesdespite constant modifications and recurring non-compliancehave fulfilled their original and most important goal of achieving the consolidation of public finances.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: IDB Working Paper Series ; No. IDB-WP-1186
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Fiscal Policy
National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General
National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures; Other Public Investment and Capital Stock
National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General
Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
- Thema
-
Fiscal rules
Public investment
Fiscal sustainability
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Mendoza Bellido, Waldo
Vega, Marco
Rojas, Carlos
Anastacio, Yuliño
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
- (wo)
-
Washington, DC
- (wann)
-
2021
- DOI
-
doi:10.18235/0003018
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Mendoza Bellido, Waldo
- Vega, Marco
- Rojas, Carlos
- Anastacio, Yuliño
- Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
Entstanden
- 2021
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