A dinâmica demográfica e a pandemia: Como andará a população brasileira?

Arbeitspapier

The paper presents a set of population projections for the Brazilian population disaggregated by sex and five-year age groups, seeking to measure the effects of the pandemic seeking to measure the effects of the pandemic on its dynamics. One of the effects was the reduction in life expectancy (e0 ) of the male and female population by 4.5 years between 2019 and 2021, caused by the increase in the number of deaths from covid-19. The difference between men and women in life expectancy at birth increased to 7.4 years, given the greater increase in male mortality. Another effect was the anticipation of the previously predicted population decrease. The Brazilian population may reach, in 2040, approximately 209 million inhabitants. The results indicate that this population should grow until 2030, when it is projected that this will reach its maximum value with a total of approximately 215 million. The ongoing and projected demographic transformations, in addition to affecting the pace of population growth, will also significantly affect the age distribution. Population aging, already confirmed in Brazil since the 1980s, should accelerate and only the population over 45 years of age will be able to experience positive growth rates from 2030, despite the pandemic. Negative growth rates are expected for the other age groups and an overaging of the Brazilian population.

Object Details

• Language: Portugiesisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Texto para Discussão ; No. 2873

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
• Subject: life expectation ; covid-19 ; population projections ; population decrease ; population ageing

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Moreira, Ana Amélia Camarano de Mello
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
• (where): Brasília
• (when): 2023

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.38116/td2873-port
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/284995
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET