Effect of diversified performance metrics and climate model weighting on global and regional trend patterns of precipitation and temperature
Abstract: A main task of climate research is to provide estimates about future climate change under global warming conditions. The main tools for this are dynamic climate models. However, different models vary quantitatively - and in some aspects even qualitatively - in the climate change signals they produce. In this study, this uncertainty about future climate is tackled by the evaluation of climate models in a standardized setup of multiple regions and variables based on four sophisticated metrics. Weighting models based on their performance will help to increase the confidence in climate model projections. Global and regional climate models are evaluated for 50-year trends of simulated seasonal precipitation and temperature. The results of these evaluations are compared, and their impact on probabilistic projections of precipitation and temperature when used as bases of weighting factors is analyzed. This study is performed on two spatial scales: seven globally distributed large study ar.... https://www.erdkunde.uni-bonn.de/article/view/2873
- Location
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Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
- Extent
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Online-Ressource
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Effect of diversified performance metrics and climate model weighting on global and regional trend patterns of precipitation and temperature ; volume:73 ; number:4 ; year:2019
Erdkunde ; 73, Heft 4 (2019)
- Creator
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Ring, Christoph
Pollinger, Felix
Keupp, Luzia
Kaspar-Ott, Irena
Hertig, Elke
Jacobeit, Jucundus
Paeth, Heiko
- DOI
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10.3112/erdkunde.2019.04.04
- URN
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urn:nbn:de:101:1-2410281730308.810900510625
- Rights
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Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
- Last update
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15.08.2025, 7:28 AM CEST
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Associated
- Ring, Christoph
- Pollinger, Felix
- Keupp, Luzia
- Kaspar-Ott, Irena
- Hertig, Elke
- Jacobeit, Jucundus
- Paeth, Heiko
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Niederschlags- und Temperaturabschätzungen für den Mittelmeerraum unter anthropogen verstärktem Treibhauseffekt
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A comparison of metrics for assessing state-of-the-art climate models and implications for probabilistic projections of climate change
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