Arbeitspapier
Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil
We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier approaches that have been applied to oil price forecasting, by allowing for sequentially updating of time-varying combination weights, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter-dependencies among models. To illustrate the usefulness of the method, we present an extensive set of empirical results about time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach systematically outperforms commonly used benchmark models and combination approaches, both in terms of point and density forecasts. The dynamic patterns of the estimated individual model weights are highly time-varying, reflecting a large time variation in the relative performance of the various individual models. The combination approach has built-in diagnostic information measures about forecast inaccuracy and/or model set incompleteness, which provide clear signals of model incompleteness during three crisis periods. To highlight that our approach also can be useful for policy analysis, we present a basic analysis of profit-loss and hedging against price risk.
- ISBN
-
978-82-8379-194-5
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Paper ; No. 3/2021
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Bayesian Analysis: General
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Energy and the Macroeconomy
Energy Forecasting
- Thema
-
Oil price
Forecast density combination
Bayesian forecasting
Instabilities
Model uncertainty
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Aastveit, Knut Are
Cross, Jamie
Herman K. van Dijk
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Norges Bank
- (wo)
-
Oslo
- (wann)
-
2021
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Aastveit, Knut Are
- Cross, Jamie
- Herman K. van Dijk
- Norges Bank
Entstanden
- 2021
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