A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Abstract - 10 % when comparing the last 30 years of the 20th century to the last 30 years of the 21st century. The most important factor determining the projected decrease in rockfall probability is a reduction in the number of freeze–thaw cycles expected under future climate conditions. For the second approach four large-scale meteorological patterns that are associated with enhanced rockfall probability are identified from reanalysis data. The frequency of all four patterns exhibits a seasonal cycle that maximises in the cold half of the year (winter and spring). Trends in the number of days that can be assigned to these patterns are determined both in meteorological reanalysis data and in climate simulations. In the reanalysis no statistically significant trend is found. For the future scenario simulations all climate models show a statistically significant decrease in the number of rockfall-promoting weather situations.
- Location
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Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
- Extent
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Online-Ressource
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany ; volume:23 ; number:8 ; year:2023 ; pages:2737-2748 ; extent:12
Natural hazards and earth system sciences ; 23, Heft 8 (2023), 2737-2748 (gesamt 12)
- Creator
- DOI
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10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023
- URN
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urn:nbn:de:101:1-2023081004390588136519
- Rights
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Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
- Last update
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14.08.2025, 10:55 AM CEST
Data provider
Deutsche Nationalbibliothek. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Associated
- Nissen, Katrin M.
- Wilde, Martina
- Kreuzer, Thomas M.
- Wohlers, Annika
- Damm, Bodo
- Ulbrich, Uwe
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