Arbeitspapier
How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-Scale Business Survey
Expectations are highly relevant for macroeconomic dynamics. Yet, the empirical evidence about properties of corporate macroeconomic expectations is scarce. Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that expectations are highly dispersed. The degree of dispersion depends on firm size and on how important the general economy is for the business of firms, supporting theories of rational inattention. Firms seem to extrapolate from local economic conditions and business experiences to aggregate growth expectations. Differences in growth expectations are associated with differences in firms' investment and labor demand.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 8179
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Expectations; Speculations
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- Thema
-
GDP expectations
expectation heterogeneity
firm
ifo business tendency survey
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Dovern, Jonas
Müller, Lena Sophia
Wohlrabe, Klaus
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
- (wo)
-
Munich
- (wann)
-
2020
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Dovern, Jonas
- Müller, Lena Sophia
- Wohlrabe, Klaus
- Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
Entstanden
- 2020
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