Arbeitspapier

How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-Scale Business Survey

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Expectations are highly relevant for macroeconomic dynamics. Yet, the empirical evidence about properties of corporate macroeconomic expectations is scarce. Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that expectations are highly dispersed. The degree of dispersion depends on firm size and on how important the general economy is for the business of firms, supporting theories of rational inattention. Firms seem to extrapolate from local economic conditions and business experiences to aggregate growth expectations. Differences in growth expectations are associated with differences in firms' investment and labor demand.

Language: Englisch

Bibliographic citation: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 8179

Classification: Wirtschaft
Expectations; Speculations
Business Fluctuations; Cycles

Subject: GDP expectations
expectation heterogeneity
firm
ifo business tendency survey

Event: Geistige Schöpfung

(who): Dovern, Jonas
Müller, Lena Sophia
Wohlrabe, Klaus

Event: Veröffentlichung

(who): Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)

(where): Munich

(when): 2020

Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/216575

Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET

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Object type

Arbeitspapier

Associated

Dovern, Jonas
Müller, Lena Sophia
Wohlrabe, Klaus
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)

Time of origin

2020

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