A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer: the Czech example

Arbeitspapier

Over the last few years, national macroprudential authorities have developed different strategies for setting the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) rate in the banking sector. The existing approaches are based on various indicators used to identify the current phase of the financial cycle. However, to our knowledge, there is no approach that directly takes into consideration banks' prudential behavior over the financial cycle as well as cyclical risks in the banking sector. In this paper, we propose a new profit-to-provisioning approach that can be used in the macroprudential decision-making process. We construct a new set of indicators that largely capture the risk of cyclicality of profit and loan loss provisions. We argue that banks should conserve a portion of the cyclically overestimated profit (non-materialized expected loss) in their capital during a financial boom. We evaluate the performance of our newly proposed indicators using two econometric exercises. Overall, they exhibit good statistical properties, are relevant to the CCyB decision-making process, and may contribute to a more precise assessment of both systemic risk accumulation and risk materialization. We believe that the relevance of the profit-to-provisioning approach and the related set of newly proposed indicators increases under IFRS 9.

Angaben zum Objekt

• ISBN: 978-92-9472-049-8
• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: ESRB Working Paper Series ; No. 82

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Central Banks and Their Policies ; Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages ; Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation
• Thema: Financial stability ; macroprudential policy ; countercyclical capital buffer ; profit-to-provisioning approach ; banking prudence indicators

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Pfeifer, Lukáš ; Hodula, Martin
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), European System of Financial Supervision
• (wo): Frankfurt a. M.
• (wann): 2018

Weitere Informationen

• DOI: doi:10.2849/732779
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/193589
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ