The war in Europe: Economic costs of the Ukrainian conflict

Arbeitspapier

With more than ten thousand casualties, the 2014 Ukrainian war between pro-Russian separatists and the government in the Donbass region, Ukraine's productive core, has taken a severe toll on the country. Using cross-country panel data over the period 1995-2017, this paper quantifies the short-term causal effects of the Donbass war on Ukraine's GDP. Results from the counterfactual estimation by the synthetic control method show that Ukraine's per capita GDP foregone due to the war amounts to 15.1% on average for 2013-2017. Separate analysis for the affected provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk indicate an average causal effect of 43% for 2013-2016. Confoundedness checks obtained by iteratively estimating synthetic controls on the pre-war period to account for previous Ukrainian-Russian disputes show robustness of the results.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: DIW Discussion Papers ; No. 1804

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions ; Capitalist Systems: Political Economy ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions ; Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
• Subject: conflict ; economic costs ; Donbass ; synthetic control

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Bluszcz, Julia ; Valente, Marica
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
• (where): Berlin
• (when): 2019

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/196836
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET