Arbeitspapier
Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?
We provide suffcient conditions for when a rational expectations structural model predicts bounded responses of endogenous variables to forward guidance announcements. The conditions coincide with a special case of the well-known (E)xpectation-stability conditions that govern when agents can learn a Rational Expectations Equilibrium. Importantly, we show that the conditions are distinct from the determinacy conditions. We show how the conditions are useful for diagnosing the features of a model that contribute to the Forward Guidance Puzzle and reveal how to construct well-behaved forward guidance predictions in standard medium-scale DSGE models.
- ISBN
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978-952-323-294-5
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Series: Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers ; No. 19/2019
- Klassifikation
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Wirtschaft
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Monetary Policy
Expectations; Speculations
Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
- Ereignis
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
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Gibbs, Christopher G.
McClung, Nigel
- Ereignis
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Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
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Bank of Finland
- (wo)
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Helsinki
- (wann)
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2019
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
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10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Gibbs, Christopher G.
- McClung, Nigel
- Bank of Finland
Entstanden
- 2019