Leading Indicators of Real Activity and Inflation for Turkey, 2001-2010

Arbeitspapier

This paper develops a set of leading indicators of industrial production growth and consumer price inflation for the period 2001-2010. The choice of indicators is based on pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise implemented by Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. We find that asset prices that reflect expectational factors or interest rates that capture the costs of borrowing for the Turkish economy tend to have the greatest predictive power for future real activity and inflation. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining real activity and inflation in a period of disinflation and normalization for the Turkish economy.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Working Paper ; No. 1134

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Central Banks and Their Policies ; Economic Growth of Open Economies ; Economywide Country Studies: Europe
• Subject: Real activity ; inflation ; leading indicators ; out-of-sample forecasting ; combination forecasts ; inflation targeting ; Turkey ; Inflationsrate ; Industrieproduktion ; Verbraucherpreisindex ; Prognoseverfahren ; Inflationssteuerung ; Türkei

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Altug, Sumru ; Uluceviz, Erhan
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Koç University-TÜSİAD Economic Research Forum (ERF)
• (where): Istanbul
• (when): 2011

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/108578
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET