Drivers of intermodel uncertainty in land carbon sink projections

Abstract Pg C (i.e., ∼ ∘ C relative to preindustrial conditions. We hypothesize that this intermodel uncertainty originates from model differences in the sensitivities of net biome production (NBP) to atmospheric CO 2 CO 2, 26.2 % for the average temperature, and 21.9 % for the average soil moisture. Furthermore, the sensitivities of NBP to temperature and soil moisture, particularly at tropical regions, contribute to explain 34 % to 65 % of the cumulative NBP deviations from the ensemble mean of the two models with the lowest carbon sink (ACCESS-ESM1-5 and UKESM1-0-LL) and of the two models with the highest sink (CESM2 and NorESM2-LM), highlighting the primary role of the response of NBP to interannual climate variability. Overall, this study provides insights on why each Earth system model projects either a low or high land carbon sink globally and across regions relative to the ensemble mean, which can focalize efforts to identify the representation of processes that lead to intermodel uncertainty.

Object Details

• Location: Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
• Extent: Online-Ressource
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Drivers of intermodel uncertainty in land carbon sink projections ; volume:19 ; number:23 ; year:2022 ; pages:5435-5448 ; extent:14 ; Biogeosciences ; 19, Heft 23 (2022), 5435-5448 (gesamt 14)

Contributors, Places and Time

• Creator: Padron Flasher, Ryan ; Gudmundsson, Lukas ; Liu, Laibao ; Humphrey, Vincent ; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

Further information

• DOI: 10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-2022120804290214401142
• Rights: Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
• Last update: 15.08.2025, 7:27 AM CEST