Arbeitspapier

Simple interest rate rules with a role for money

The paper analyses the performance of simple interest rate rules which feature a response to noisy observations of inflation, output and money growth. The analysis is based on a small empirical model of the hybrid New Keynesian type which has been estimated on euro area data by Stracca (2007). To assess the magnitude of the measurement problems regarding the feedback variables, we draw upon the real-time data set for Germany compiled by Gerberding et al. (2004). We find that interest rate rules which include a response to money growth outperform both Taylor-type rules and speed limit policies once real-time output gap uncertainty is accounted for. One reason is that targeting money growth introduces history dependence into the policy rule which is desirable when private agents are forward-looking. The second reason is that money growth contains information on the "true" growth rate of output which can only be measured imperfectly.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Discussion Paper Series 1 ; No. 2007,31

Classification
Wirtschaft
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
Central Banks and Their Policies
Monetary Policy
Subject
Monetary policy rules
euro area
data uncertainty
Zinspolitik
Regelgebundene Politik
Reaktionsfunktion
Geldmengensteuerung
Ungleichgewichtstheorie
Theorie
EU-Staaten
Deutschland

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Scharnagl, Michael
Gerberding, Christina
Seitz, Franz
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Deutsche Bundesbank
(where)
Frankfurt a. M.
(when)
2007

Handle
Last update
10.03.20252025, 11:14 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Scharnagl, Michael
  • Gerberding, Christina
  • Seitz, Franz
  • Deutsche Bundesbank

Time of origin

  • 2007

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