Arbeitspapier
The COVID-19 Pandemic and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 U.S. presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we estimate the effect of COVID- 19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020. To account for potential confounders, we include a large number of COVID-19-related controls as well as demographic and so- cioeconomic variables. Moreover, we instrument the numbers of cases and deaths with the share of workers employed in meat-processing factories to sharpen our identification strategy. We find that COVID-19 cases negatively affected Trump's vote share. The estimated effect appears strongest in ur- ban counties, in states without stay-at-home orders, in swing states, and in states that Trump won in 2016. A simple counterfactual analysis suggests that Trump would likely have won re-election if COVID-19 cases had been 5 percent lower. We also find some evidence that the COVID-19 incidence had a positive effect on voters' mobilization, helping Biden win the presidency.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: GLO Discussion Paper ; No. 710 [pre.]
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
- Thema
-
COVID-19
pandemic
elections
political behavior
pre-analysis plan
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Baccini, Leonardo
Brodeur, Abel
Weymouth, Stephen
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Global Labor Organization (GLO)
- (wo)
-
Essen
- (wann)
-
2021
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Baccini, Leonardo
- Brodeur, Abel
- Weymouth, Stephen
- Global Labor Organization (GLO)
Entstanden
- 2021
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