Journal article | Zeitschriftenartikel
Evaluation and accuracy of economic forecasts
Die wirtschaftlichen Prognosen für 2001 haben die Realität in hohem Maße verfehlt. Während ein Wirtschaftswachstum von 3% vorausgesagt wurde, wuchs das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt tatsächlich nur um 0,6%. Die Prognosen für die Jahre 1995 bis 2001 waren dennoch ziemlich genau. Der Verfasser benennt eine Reihe von Ursachen für Prognosefehler: Revision von Daten, unvorhersehbare Ereignisse, Verhaltensrückkopplungen, politische Rückkopplungen, Nachahmungsverhalten der Experten. (ICEÜbers)
- Alternative title
-
Bewertung und Genauigkeit wirtschaftlicher Prognosen
- ISSN
-
0172-6404
- Extent
-
Seite(n): 242-255
- Language
-
Englisch
- Notes
-
Status: Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet (peer reviewed)
- Bibliographic citation
-
Historical Social Research, 27(4)
- Subject
-
Wirtschaft
Volkswirtschaftstheorie
Validität
Prognostik
Wirtschaftsentwicklung
Prognose
deskriptive Studie
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Groemling, Michael
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (where)
-
Deutschland
- (when)
-
2002
- DOI
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-33924
- Rights
-
GESIS - Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften. Bibliothek Köln
- Last update
-
21.06.2024, 4:27 PM CEST
Data provider
This object is provided by:
GESIS - Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften. Bibliothek Köln. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
GESIS - Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften. Bibliothek Köln. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Zeitschriftenartikel
Associated
- Groemling, Michael
Time of origin
- 2002
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