Arbeitspapier
Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers
Call centers' managers are interested in obtaining accurate forecasts of call arrivals because these are a key input in staffing and scheduling decisions. Therefore their ability to achieve an optimal balance between service quality and operating costs ultimately hinges on forecast accuracy. We present a strategy to model selection in call centers which is based on three pillars: (i) a flexible loss function; (ii) statistical evaluation of forecast accuracy; (iii) economic evaluation of forecast performance using money metrics. We implement fourteen time series models and seven forecast combination schemes on three series of call arrivals. We show that second moment modeling is important when forecasting call arrivals. From the point of view of a call center manager, our results indicate that outsourcing the development of a forecasting model is worth its cost, since the simple Seasonal Random Walk model is always outperformed by other, relatively more sophisticated, specifications.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: Nota di Lavoro ; No. 6.2017
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
IT Management
- Subject
-
ARIMA
Call Center Arrivals
Loss Function
Seasonality
Telecommunications Forecasting
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Bastianin, Andrea
Galeotti, Marzio
Manera, Matteo
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
- (where)
-
Milano
- (when)
-
2017
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Bastianin, Andrea
- Galeotti, Marzio
- Manera, Matteo
- Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
Time of origin
- 2017
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