Artikel
A note on forecasting the rate of change of the price of oil: Asymmetric loss and forecast rationality
We study whether forecasts of the rate of change of the price of oil are rational. To this end, we consider a model that allows the shape of forecasters' loss function to be studied. The shape of forecasters' loss function may be consistent with a symmetric or an asymmetric loss function. We find that an asymmetric loss function often (but not always) makes forecasts look rational, and we also report that forecast rationality may have changed over time.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Journal: Economies ; ISSN: 2227-7099 ; Volume: 1 ; Year: 2013 ; Issue: 1 ; Pages: 6-13 ; Basel: MDPI
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
- Subject
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oil price
forecasting
loss function
rationality of forecasts
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Pierdzioch, Christian
Rülke, Jan-Christoph
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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MDPI
- (where)
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Basel
- (when)
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2013
- DOI
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doi:10.3390/economies1010006
- Handle
- Last update
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10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Artikel
Associated
- Pierdzioch, Christian
- Rülke, Jan-Christoph
- MDPI
Time of origin
- 2013
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