Arbeitspapier
Betting market efficiency in the presence of unfamiliar shocks: The case of ghost games during the COVID-19 pandemic
Betting markets have been frequently used as a natural laboratory to test the efficient market hypothesis and to obtain insights especially for financial markets. We add to this literature in analyzing the velocity and accuracy in which market expectations adapt to an exogenous shock: the introduction of soccer ghost games during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that betting odds do not properly reflect the effect of ghost games regarding changes in home advantage. Furthermore, we present evidence for a slow to non-existing adaption process with respect to new match results, indicating a lack of semi-strong efficiency. Based on these findings, we also identify very simple but highly profitable betting strategies which underline our rejection of the efficient market hypothesis.
- ISBN
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978-3-86304-348-3
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: DICE Discussion Paper ; No. 349
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
Sports Economics: General
Sports Economics: Industry Studies
Sports Economics: Finance
- Subject
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Home Advantage
Betting Market
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Ghost Games
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Fischer, Kai
Haucap, Justus
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE)
- (where)
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Düsseldorf
- (when)
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2020
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Fischer, Kai
- Haucap, Justus
- Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE)
Time of origin
- 2020
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