Economic Uncertainty and Fertility

Arbeitspapier

In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of how uncertainty alters fertility behavior. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in income uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We examine this prediction using a new measure of economic uncertainty, the World Uncertainty Index and focus on data from 126 countries for the period from 1996 to 2017. The empirical findings indicate that uncertainty decreases the fertility rate, as suggested by theory. This evidence is robust to different model specifications and econometric techniques as well as to the inclusion of various controls. The evidence also indicates that changes in uncertainty may be a factor explaining why fertility is pro-cyclical.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 9025

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth ; Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty ; Household Saving; Personal Finance ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
• Subject: fertility ; uncertainty ; WUI Index ; precautionary saving ; business cycle ; panel data estimation techniques

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Gozgor, Giray ; Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin ; Rangazas, Peter
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (where): Munich
• (when): 2021

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/235395
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET