Arbeitspapier

Beyond quantified ignorance: Rebuilding rationality without the bias bias

If we reassess the rationality question under the assumption that the uncertainty of the natural world is largely unquantifiable, where do we end up? In this article the author argues that we arrive at a statistical, normative, and cognitive theory of ecological rationality. The main casualty of this rebuilding process is optimality. Once we view optimality as a formal implication of quantified uncertainty rather than an ecologically meaningful objective, the rationality question shifts from being axiomatic/probabilistic in nature to being algorithmic/ predictive in nature. These distinct views on rationalitymirror fundamental and longstanding divisions in statistics.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Economics Discussion Papers ; No. 2019-25

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Computational Techniques; Simulation Modeling
Consumer Protection
Thema
cognitive science
rationality
ecological rationality
bounded rationality
bias bias
bias/variance dilemma
Bayesianism
machine learning
pattern recognition
decision making under uncertainty
unquantifiable uncertainty

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Brighton, Henry
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
(wo)
Kiel
(wann)
2019

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
20.09.2024, 08:23 MESZ

Datenpartner

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ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Brighton, Henry
  • Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)

Entstanden

  • 2019

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