Arbeitspapier

Trade booms, trade busts, and trade costs

What has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past and present? We derive a micro-founded measure of trade frictions from leading trade theories and use it to gauge the importance of bilateral trade costs in determining international trade flows. We construct a new balanced sample of bilateral trade flows for 130 country pairs across the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania for the period from 1870 to 2000 and demonstrate an overriding role for declining trade costs in the pre-World War I trade boom. In contrast, for the post-World War II trade boom we identify changes in output as the dominant force. Finally, the entirety of the interwar trade bust is explained by increases in trade costs.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 2767

Classification
Wirtschaft
Trade: General
Economic Integration
Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: General, International, or Comparative
Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, Technology, and Other Services: General, International, or Comparative
Subject
Außenwirtschaft
Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen
Transaktionskosten
Außenhandelsgeschichte
Welt

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Jacks, David S.
Meissner, Christopher M.
Novy, Dennis
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
(where)
Munich
(when)
2009

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Jacks, David S.
  • Meissner, Christopher M.
  • Novy, Dennis
  • Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)

Time of origin

  • 2009

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