Arbeitspapier
Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations
We assess whether "undue optimism" (Pigou) contributes to business cycle fluctuations. In our analysis, optimism (or pessimism) pertains to total factor productivity which determines economic activity in the long run. Optimism shocks are perceived changes in productivity which do not actually materialize. We develop a new strategy to identify optimism shocks in a VAR model. It is based on nowcast errors regarding current output growth, that is, the difference between actual growth and the real-time prediction of professional forecasters. We find that optimism shocks - in line with theory - generate a negative nowcast error, but simultaneously a positive short-run output response.
- ISBN
-
978-3-95729-359-6
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Bundesbank Discussion Paper ; No. 11/2017
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- Thema
-
undue optimism
optimism shocks
noise shocks
animal spirits
business cycles
nowcast errors
VAR
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Enders, Zeno
Kleemann, Michael
Müller, Gernot J.
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Deutsche Bundesbank
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2017
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:46 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Enders, Zeno
- Kleemann, Michael
- Müller, Gernot J.
- Deutsche Bundesbank
Entstanden
- 2017
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