Impact of Terms-of-Trade on Business Cycles of Slovakia, Czech Republic and Croatia

Konferenzbeitrag

Different theoretical and empirical studies lead to the different results. Different theories suggest a positive as well as a negative relation between the terms-of-trade and trade balance. The traditional Keynesian Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect of the terms-of-trade on the trade balance is positive. According to the ObsfeldSvensson-Razin effect the positive relation between the terms-of-trade and trade balance is the smaller, the higher a persistence of the terms-of-trade shocks is. The empirical studies do not support statistically significant impact of the terms-of-trade on the output in the developing countries. The goal of the paper is to verify an impact of the terms-of-trade on the Slovak Czech and Croatian business cycles and trade balances. Using the structural vector auto-regression analysis of the terms-oftrade, trade balance, output, consumption and investment cyclical components, we show that the relationship between the terms-of-trade and trade-balance is negative in the Slovak and Czech economy. The relationship between the terms-oftrade and trade-balance is statistically insignificant in the Croatian economy. Termsof-trade shocks explain only small fraction of business cycles in the Slovak, Czech and Croatian economies. Data exhibit Obstfeld-Svensson-Razin effect of the termsof-trade on the trade balance.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: In: Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference, Rovinj, Croatia, 8-9 September 2016 ; Year: 2016 ; Pages: 228-235 ; Zagreb: IRENET - Society for Advancing Innovation and Research in Economy

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Empirical Studies of Trade
• Thema: innovation ; terms-of-trade ; business cycle ; Slovak economy ; Czech economy ; Croatian economy ; trade balance ; market

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Szomolányi, Karol ; Lukáčik, Martin ; Lukáčiková, Adriana
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): IRENET - Society for Advancing Innovation and Research in Economy
• (wo): Zagreb
• (wann): 2016

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/183722
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ