Konferenzbeitrag
Government Spending in Uncertain and Slack Times: Historical Evidence for Larger Fiscal Multipliers
We investigate whether US government spending multipliers are higher during periods of heightened uncertainty or economic slack as opposed to normal times. Using quarterly historical data and local projections, we estimate a cumulative one-year multiplier of 2 during uncertain periods. In contrast, the multiplier is about 1 in times of high unemployment and about 0:5 - 0:7 during normal times. While we find positive employment effects in economic slack as in uncertain times, two transmission channels can explain the higher multipliers in the latter: greater price exibility leading to short run in ation (lowering the real interest rate) and diminishing risk premiums.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2020: Gender Economics
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Fiscal Policy
- Thema
-
Fiscal policy
government spending
fiscal multiplier
uncertainty
economic slack
local projections
historical data
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Goemans, Pascal
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
- (wo)
-
Kiel, Hamburg
- (wann)
-
2020
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Konferenzbeitrag
Beteiligte
- Goemans, Pascal
- ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
Entstanden
- 2020
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