Arbeitspapier
Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity
Eleven of fourteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment; three were not. The term spread at the end of these cycles discriminates almost perfectly between subsequent outcomes, but levels of nominal or real interest rates, as well as other interest rate spreads, generally do not.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: Staff Report ; No. 397
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Monetary Policy
Financial Forecasting and Simulation
- Subject
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Monetary policy
interest rates
term structure
discriminant analysis
logit
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Adrian, Tobias
Estrella, Arturo
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- (where)
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New York, NY
- (when)
-
2009
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Adrian, Tobias
- Estrella, Arturo
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Time of origin
- 2009
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