Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Predictability under Uncertain Economic Conditions

Artikel

Modern central banks increasingly value monetary policy transparency, and attempt to build credibility by communicating their decisions to the public. This paper studies whether the communication of central banks can be used to explain upcoming changes in their most important monetary policy instrument, the short-term refinancing rate, and whether the public can trust central bank communication during times of financial crisis. This is done by constructing an indicator to measure the predictability of monetary policy by calculating the median of the policy makers’ official comments. The performance of this indicator is studied with ordered probit methods. The results show that predictability was reached relatively well at central bank level during the financial crisis despite the rapid growth of economic uncertainty, and that communication can be a useful tool for central banks during uncertain times.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Journal: Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice ; ISSN: 2336-9205 ; Volume: 8 ; Year: 2019 ; Issue: 2 ; Pages: 5-32 ; Warsaw: De Gruyter Open

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness ; Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General ; Monetary Policy ; Central Banks and Their Policies ; Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: Other
• Thema: Monetary Policy ; Central banking ; Communication ; Central Banks and Their Policies.

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Lehtimäki, Jonne O. ; Palmu, Marianne
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): De Gruyter Open
• (wo): Warsaw
• (wann): 2019

Weitere Informationen

• DOI: doi:10.2478/jcbtp-2019-0011
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/217672
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ