Arbeitspapier
Confidence, fundamentals, and consumption
We offer a structural interpretation of survey measures of consumer confidence. Our approach is based on a simple forward-looking model of consumption. The model decomposes observed consumption uctuations in changes due to fundamentals, and changes due to temporary errors caused by noisy information. Our model-based measure, estimated using national accounts, closely mimics out-of-sample survey data in the U.S. and a majority of European countries. The results provide a theoretical foundation for the use of survey-based consumer confidence indices. In addition, since national accounts are an internationally consistent measure of activity, our structural method provides an alternative and internationally consistent measure of consumer confidence.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ISER Discussion Paper ; No. 1135
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
General Outlook and Conditions
- Thema
-
Aggregate spending
confidence indices
noisy information
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
L'Huillier, Jean-Paul
Waldmann, Robert
Yoo, Donghoon
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Osaka University, Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER)
- (wo)
-
Osaka
- (wann)
-
2021
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
- 10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- L'Huillier, Jean-Paul
- Waldmann, Robert
- Yoo, Donghoon
- Osaka University, Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER)
Entstanden
- 2021
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
Consumer Confidence and Consumption in Sweden
Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Consumption Expenditure in New Zealand?
Reforms and confidence
Confidence and the Erosion of Confidence: Economic Functions and Effects
Self-confidence and search
US outlook and German confidence : does the confidence channel work?
Exchange rates and fundamentals
Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: evidence for the United States and the euro area
Confidence and the financial accelerator
Education, redistributive taxation and confidence
Self-Confidence and Strategic Deterrence
Bank crises and investor confidence
Consumer Confidence and Consumption in Sweden
Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Consumption Expenditure in New Zealand?
Reforms and confidence
Confidence and the Erosion of Confidence: Economic Functions and Effects
Self-confidence and search
US outlook and German confidence : does the confidence channel work?
Exchange rates and fundamentals
Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: evidence for the United States and the euro area
Confidence and the financial accelerator
Education, redistributive taxation and confidence
Self-Confidence and Strategic Deterrence
Bank crises and investor confidence
Consumer Confidence and Consumption in Sweden
Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Consumption Expenditure in New Zealand?
Reforms and confidence
Confidence and the Erosion of Confidence: Economic Functions and Effects
Self-confidence and search
US outlook and German confidence : does the confidence channel work?
Exchange rates and fundamentals
Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: evidence for the United States and the euro area
Confidence and the financial accelerator
Education, redistributive taxation and confidence
Self-Confidence and Strategic Deterrence