Current accounts dynamics in OECD and EU acceding countries - an intertemporal approach

Arbeitspapier

The paper extends the standard intertemporal model of the current account to include two important stylised facts: (1) the persistence of current account positions and (2) the relevance of the fiscal balance. Specifically, the paper derives a closed form solution for consumption in the presence of habit persistence and liquidity constraints, which allows us to obtain a dynamic model for the current account where fiscal deficits have an effect. The model is estimated for a panel of 33 countries, including the ten EU acceding countries and structural current account positions are derived. A parsimonious specification including relative income, relative investment and the fiscal balance explains well past current account developments. A key finding of the paper is that, from an intertemporal perspective, current accounts in most acceding countries are currently broadly in line with their structural current account positions.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 311

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements ; Open Economy Macroeconomics
• Thema: current account ; habit persistence ; liquidity constraints ; panel

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Bussière, Matthieu ; Fratzscher, Marcel ; Müller, Gernot J.
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): European Central Bank (ECB)
• (wo): Frankfurt a. M.
• (wann): 2004

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/152745
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ