Artikel
The global economy and the euro area: So far trade disputes have had only limited effects on global growth
After a strong second quarter, the global upturn appears to remain intact, economic and political turmoils notwithstanding, especially in the United States and the euro area. Therefore, DIW Berlin is slightly raising its forecast for the global economy this year to 4.2 percent. Over the course of the rest of the year, however, non-recurring effects are likely to disappear in the United States, causing growth to slow down somewhat. Thus, for the coming year, DIW Berlin is remaining with its forecast from early summer, which estimated growth of 3.9 percent. Due to the improving labor markets, private consumption continues to be the most important support of the upturn in the global economy. Monetary policy remains expansionary for the time being but this will gradually change. Uncertainties regarding US trade policy are a risk to global trade, which will likely dampen investment in the further course of the forecast period. Further risk factors are the economic policies of the new Italian government and the threat of a hard Brexit. The turbulence in Turkey, on the other hand, is unlikely to have a major impact.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Journal: DIW Weekly Report ; ISSN: 2568-7697 ; Volume: 8 ; Year: 2018 ; Issue: 36 ; Pages: 330-333 ; Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
General Outlook and Conditions
Global Outlook
- Subject
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business cycle forecast
economic outlook
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Michelsen, Claus
Baldi, Guido
Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine
Engerer, Hella
Gebauer, Stefan
Rieth, Malte
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
- (where)
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Berlin
- (when)
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2018
- Handle
- Last update
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10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Artikel
Associated
- Michelsen, Claus
- Baldi, Guido
- Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine
- Engerer, Hella
- Gebauer, Stefan
- Rieth, Malte
- Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
Time of origin
- 2018
Other Objects (12)
The global economy and the euro area : Weak international trade, robust domestic demand
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Coronavirus pandemic plunging global economy into a serious recession
Coronavirus causing major economic shock to the global economy
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Global economy and the euro area: Protectionism weighing on trade and investment
The global economy and the euro area: Weak international trade, robust domestic demand
The global economy and the euro area: Uncertainty weighing on world trade and industry
Weltwirtschaft wächst auch weiterhin mit wenig Schwung
Weltwirtschaft und Euroraum: Handelsstreitigkeiten belasten die Konjunktur bisher nur leicht
Weltwirtschaft und Euroraum: Protektionismus belastet Handel und Investitionen
Weltwirtschaft und Euroraum: Schwacher Welthandel, aber binnenwirtschaftliche Kräfte weitgehend intakt
The global economy and the euro area : Weak international trade, robust domestic demand
Global economy continues to suffer weak growth momentum
Coronavirus pandemic plunging global economy into a serious recession
Coronavirus causing major economic shock to the global economy
Weltwirtschaft und Euroraum : Schwacher Welthandel, aber binnenwirtschaftliche Kräfte weitgehend intakt
Global economy and the euro area: Protectionism weighing on trade and investment
The global economy and the euro area: Weak international trade, robust domestic demand
The global economy and the euro area: Uncertainty weighing on world trade and industry
Weltwirtschaft wächst auch weiterhin mit wenig Schwung
Weltwirtschaft und Euroraum: Handelsstreitigkeiten belasten die Konjunktur bisher nur leicht
Weltwirtschaft und Euroraum: Protektionismus belastet Handel und Investitionen
Weltwirtschaft und Euroraum: Schwacher Welthandel, aber binnenwirtschaftliche Kräfte weitgehend intakt
The global economy and the euro area : Weak international trade, robust domestic demand
Global economy continues to suffer weak growth momentum
Coronavirus pandemic plunging global economy into a serious recession
Coronavirus causing major economic shock to the global economy
Weltwirtschaft und Euroraum : Schwacher Welthandel, aber binnenwirtschaftliche Kräfte weitgehend intakt
Global economy and the euro area: Protectionism weighing on trade and investment
The global economy and the euro area: Weak international trade, robust domestic demand
The global economy and the euro area: Uncertainty weighing on world trade and industry
Weltwirtschaft wächst auch weiterhin mit wenig Schwung
Weltwirtschaft und Euroraum: Handelsstreitigkeiten belasten die Konjunktur bisher nur leicht
Weltwirtschaft und Euroraum: Protektionismus belastet Handel und Investitionen