More than wishful thinking: causes and consequences of voters’ electoral expectations about parties and coalitions

Arbeitspapier | Working paper

"Accurate expectations about the outcome of elections play a central role in psychological and economic theories of voting. In the paper, three questions about voters' expectations are investigated. First, we identify and test several factors that influence the overall accuracy or quality of voters' expectations. Second, the phenomenon of 'wishful thinking' is tested and confirmed for expectations about the electoral performance of individual parties and coalitions. Finally, two mechanisms how expectations might influence voting behavior are identified and tested. Based on surveys from Austria and Germany, the results suggest that voters not only rely on expectations to avoid casting 'wasted' votes for parties without electoral chances, but that they are able to engage in fairly sophisticated strategic coalition voting." (author's abstract)

Object Details

• Extent: Seite(n): 36
• Language: Englisch
• Notes: Status: Veröffentlichungsversion

Classification and Topics

• Subject: Politikwissenschaft ; politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur ; Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Erwartung ; Österreich ; Wahlverhalten ; Wähler ; Partei ; Wahlergebnis ; Präferenz ; Bildungsniveau ; Koalition ; Wissen ; empirisch

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Meffert, Michael F. ; Huber, Sascha ; Gschwend, Thomas ; Pappi, Franz Urban
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (where): Deutschland, Mannheim
• (when): 2009

Further information

• URN: urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-257692
• Rights: GESIS - Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften. Bibliothek Köln
• Last update: 21.06.2024, 4:26 PM CEST