Arbeitspapier
Announcements of Interest Rate Forecasts: Do Policymakers Stick to Them?
If central banks value the ex-post accuracy of their forecasts, previously announced interest rate paths might affect the current policy rate. We explore whether this "forecast adherence" has influenced the monetary policies of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Norges Bank, the two central banks with the longest history of publishing interest rate paths. We derive and estimate a policy rule for a central bank that is reluctant to deviate from its forecasts. The rule can nest a variety of interest rate rules. We find that policymakers appear to be constrained by their most recently announced forecasts.
- ISBN
-
978-82-7553-745-2
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Series: Working Paper ; No. 2013/11
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
Monetary Policy
Central Banks and Their Policies
- Thema
-
Taylor rule
interest rates
forecasts
adherence
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Mirkov, Nikola
Natvik, Gisle James
- Ereignis
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Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Norges Bank
- (wo)
-
Oslo
- (wann)
-
2013
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Mirkov, Nikola
- Natvik, Gisle James
- Norges Bank
Entstanden
- 2013